As we enter the final stretch run of the 2008 election cycle, it’s time we took the pulse of the Senate again. You know what to do: Rank the Senate races (as far down the list as you wish to go) in order of their likelihood of flipping.
75 thoughts on “October Senate Cattle Call”
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1) VA- Mark Warner
2) NM- Tom Udall
3) CO- Mark Udall
4) NH- Jeanne Shaheen
5) AK- Mark Begich
6) NC- Kay Hagan
7) OR- Jeff Merkley
8) MN- Al Franken
9) KY- Bruce Lunsford
10) GA- Jim Martin
(1) Virginia
(2) New Mexico
(3) Colorado
(4) New Hampshire
(5) Alaska
(6) North Carolina
(7) Oregon
(8) Minnesota
(9) Mississippi
(10) Kentucky
(11) Georgia
(12) Texas
(13) Louisiana
All other seats are safe…at this time. I think the Dems will definitely pick up (1)-(3), probably pick up (4)-(6), and has at least a 50-50 chance of picking up (7)-(9).
I will go on a limb (not really a limb, but more like reality) that Maine will not be contested.
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Colorado
4. New Hampshire
5. Alaska
6. North Carolina
7. Oregon
8. Minnesota
9. Mississippi-B
10. Kentucky
11. Georgia
12. Maine
13. Texas
14. Oklahoma
15. Nebraska
Locks
1. VA
2. NM
Looking Good
3. NH
4. CO
5. AK
6. OR
7. NC
Could Go Either Way
8. MN
So Close
9. KY
10. MS
Yet So Far
11. GA
12. LA
All others are out of contention minus a real game-changer.
1) Virginia
2) New Mexico
3) Colorado
4) North Carolina
5) Alaska
6) New Hampshire
7) Oregon
8) Minnesota (Though possibly to I)
9) Mississippi
10) Kentucky
11) Maine
12) Georgia
13) Texas
14) Louisiana
15) South Carolina
16) Oklahoma
17) Nebraska
18) New Jersey
19) Kansas
20) Idaho
All others are “inconceivable”
1. VA
2. NM
3. NH
4. CO
5. AK
6. NC
7. OR
8. MN
9. MS
10. KY
11. GA
12. ME
13. LA
13. TX
14. NJ
15. SC
16. NE
17. OK
18. ID
19. KS
20. TN
Likely to Solid D:
1. VA – Open
2. NM – Open
Leans D to Likely D:
3. CO – Open
4. NH – Sununu
5. AK – Stevens
Slight D Edge:
6. NC – Dole
7. OR – Smith
Tossup:
8. MN – Coleman
Slight R Edge:
9. MS – Wicker
10. KY – McConnell
Leans R to Likely R:
11. GA – Chambliss
12. ME – Collins
Dem Seat – Leans D to Likely D:
13. LA – Landrieu
Outlook – Dem gain between 7-9 seats
1. VA [Warner]
2. NM [T. Udall]
3. NH [Shaheen]
4. CO [M. Udall]
5. AK [Begich]
6. NC [Hagan]
7. OR [Merkley]
9. MN [Franken– really hopin for this one]
10. MS [Musgrove]
11. KY [Lunsford]
12. GA [Martin]
13. ME [Allen]
14. OK [Rice}
15. TX {Noriega]
16. NE [Kleeb]
17. SC [Conley]
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Colorado
4. New Hampshire
5. Alaska
6. Oregon
7. North Carolina
8. Minnesota
9. Mississippi-B
10. Kentucky
11. Georgia
12. Louisiana
13. Maine
1. VA
2. NM
3. NC
4. CO
5. OR
6. NH
7. AK
8. MN
9. KY
10. GA
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Colorado
4. New Hampshire
5. Alaska
6. Oregon
7. North Carolina
I expect to win all these.
8. Minnesota
9. Mississippi
Too close to call.
10. Kentucky
11. Georgia
GOP ahead but not by much.
12. Maine
13. Texas
Repubs favored but could tighten.
14. Idaho
15. Nebraska
16. South Carolina
17. Oklahoma
18. Kansas
Not impossible but very unlikely.
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Colorado
4. Alaska
5. New Hampshire
6. Oregon
7. North Carolina
8. Minnesota
9. Mississippi-B
10.Kentucky
11.Georgia
12.Louisiana
13.Maine
1-2 are locked; 3-5 are pretty good (disappointment if we lose any of those); 6-7 lean to DEMs; 8-9 lean to GOP; 10-13 are likely to stay incumbent Senator (considered not even listing 11-13 and just having KY).
Outcome is a 7-8 seat DEM gain depending on 6-9 basically.
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Alaska
6. Minnesota
7. Oregon
8. North Carolina
9. Mississippi-B
10. Georgia
11. Kentucky
12. Maine
13. Louisiana
14. Nebraska
15. Oklahoma
16. Texas
17. Idaho
18. Kansas
19. New Jersey
20. South Dakota
1-2 are locks for the Dems, 3-5 are pretty comfortable pickups unless Uncle Ted pulls a whizzer and gets acquitted, 6-8 are tossups but look hopeful unless McCain pulls another rabbit out of his hat at the last minute, 9-10 are formidable but could happen if the African-American vote really comes out big, 11-12 are unlikely but could happen if we really get an Obama tsunami, 13-20 are almost certainly not going to happen.
1. State for for lovers
2. Roswell
3. John Denver –
4. The Granite State
5. Nike Town
6. The Palin State
7 Tarheel State
8. Hockey Mom State
9. The Peach State
10. Bluegrass
11. Crooked Letters
I used to enjoy this at that site but am glad that Swing State runs it as well. I see zero Democratic held seats belonging in the Cattle Call 30 days out.
The Republican seats at play I see in this order of flipability.
1) VA
2) NM
3) NH
4) CO
5) NC
6) OR
7) MN
8) AK
9) GA
10)KY
11)MS B
12)TX
The hopefuls that are just not catching and regrettably gone now are:
13)ME
14)OK
15)KS
16)NE
17)ID
The never was but thank you guys for trying!
18)TN
19)AL
20)MS A
21)SC
22)WY 1
23)WY 2
1. VA – Warner (sure thing)
2. NM – T. Udall (virtually sure thing)
3. CO – M. Udall (good campaign in purple state)
4. NH – Shaheen (NH turning blue?)
5. NC – Hagen (great campaign against a wall hanging)
6. OR – Merkley (smart campaign in blue state)
7. AK – Begich (may withstand Palin effect)
8. MN – Franken (enigma, but great ad starring wife)
9. KY – Lundsford (just ruthless enough)
10. GA – Martin (state may trend purple)
11. MS – Musgrove (hard to read)
12. TX – Noriega (movin’ on up?)
13. SC – Conley (sleeper out of right field)
14. ME – Allen (still possible in a wave)
15. OK – Rice (our vibes have to be adding points)
16. NE – Kleeb (personal charisma may trump ideology)
17. ID – La Rocca (hard work, enthusiasm a plus)
18. NJ – Zimmer-R (hope not, doubt it)
19. TN – Tuke (miracle needed)
20. KS – Slattery (even a miracle wouldn’t do it)
Likely Change of Party:
1) Virginia
2) New Mexico
Lean Change of Party:
3) Colorado
4) New Hampshire
5) Alaska
6) North Carolina
7) Oregon
Tossups:
8) Minnesota
9) Mississippi
Lean Retention:
10) Kentucky
11) Georgia
12) Maine
13) Nebraska
14) Louisiana
Likely Retention:
15) Texas
16) Oklahoma
17) Kansas
18) New Jersey
19) South Carolina
20) Idaho
21) Tennessee
All other races are safe.
1) VA- Mark Warner
2) NM- Tom Udall
3) CO- Mark Udall
4) NH- Jeanne Shaheen
5) AK- Mark Begich
6) NC- Kay Hagan
7) OR- Jeff Merkley
8) MN- Al Franken
9) KY- Bruce Lunsford
1o)Ms-B -Ronnie Musgrove
11) GA- Jim Martin
1.Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Colorado
4. New Hampshire
5. Alaska (though Palin coattails could f this up)
6. North Carolina
7. Oregon
8. Minnesota
9. Kentucky
10. Mississippi-B
11. Georgia
12. Texas
If you aren’t on the list than your not going to make it. Waiting to see what the DSCC does with the $5 million for Maine. They should start airing some ads now and see what happens.
I won’t list a ranking simply because I’m working on a race, but I do wish to point out that it’s true that Texas should be moving back up some lists. We just went nearly 2 months without polling which was part of the problem.
http://www.burntorangereport.c…
And of course, it’s a better shot than Maine which I’m surprised is still being put on people’s lists. That was gone a long time ago.
A dozen or so
Safe Democratic
24) Louisiana
Likely Democratic pick-up
1) Virginia
2) New Mexico
3) Colorado
4) New Hampshire
5) Mississippi-B
6) Alaska
(OK, outrun by events. With Sen Stevens currently on trial, I’d have to admit that AK is more likely to flip than MS. But not by much. And both will flip, for sure.)
Leans Democrat pick-up
7) Oregon
Toss-up
8) Minnesota
9) North Carolina
10) Kentucky
(Today I’d promote NC and KY to Leans Democratic pick-up. Minnesota, well, damn. I like Al Franken, but that doesn’t mean that I think everybody likes Al Franken. His celebrity is both his greatest asset and his greatest liability. The polling continues to be erratic. I think we win in the Democratic wave, but this is one instance where the personality just might be stronger than the wave.)
Leans Repub
11) Texas
12) Maine
13) Idaho
14) Oklahoma
15) Kansas
16) Nebraska
Likely Repub
17) Georgia
(Whoa. I was way far off about GA. Today I’d put Jim Martin and GA at about 10) Leans Democratic pick-up. Hey, Obama is gonna carry at least three ex-Confederate states, we’re gonna elect four new Senators from Southern states, and pick up House seats in VA, NC, FL, LA, and TX, and possibly in SC and AL too, on top of the ones we got in LA and MS earlier this year. Who said the Repubs would be a Southern regional party? We’ll wipe them out in Dixie too!)
(TX is looking much better. Rick Noriega is rising in the polls without a minute of TV ads; that says to me it’s the Democratic wave lifting his boat. He has a simple course to victory: Hispanics vote for him as one of their own. Blacks vote for him while voting for Obama as one of their own. The Obama campaign gets every Anglo Democrat to the polls. The DSCC rides in like the calvary to saturate the air with negatives against Big John Cornyn the last week or two of October.)
(OK is a longshot, but a realistic longshot. The DSCC really likes Andrew Rice. If he continues to gain ground, they can come into the two medium-sized not-too-expensive media markets, Tulsa and Oklahoma City, and go heavily negative on climate change denier Inhofe.)
(Looks like KS is just not gonna take off; Slattery let his opponent get on the air first to define him as a Washington lobbyist.)
(NE has some movement, but it’s getting very late.)
(ID still has Larry LaRocco as the luckiest politician in this cycle. He need not even remind us that Sen Larry Craig is not gay.)
(ME Tom Allen can’t seem to land the knockout punch. Maybe Obama can do it for him. Or the DSCC with negative ads in late October. They did a job of Liddy Dole, but Sen Collins is a better, more slippery pol.)
18) Tennessee
(And TN is not completely dead after all. So I’ll make Bob Tuke and TN a new 18) Likely Repub.
South Carolina
Mississippi-A
Wyoming
Alabama
Wyoming
Trying to be conservative, but I can’t find much else to change. At least half of my “Leans Repub” races will be competitive by November, Toss-ups or nearly so.
In the wave election, the Democrats will sweep almost all — but not all — of the competitive contests, winning 10 or 12 or even 14 seats.
Seriously, that’s my forecast and I’m sticking to it. This will be a transformative, map-changing election, and an utter and complete repudiation of the Repub party.
# # #
1. Virginia (Open)
2. New Mexico (Open)
3. New Hampshire (Sununu)
4. Colorado (Open)
5. North Carolina (Dole)
6. Alaska (Stevens)
7. Oregon (Smith)
8. Minnesota (Coleman)
9. Mississippi-B (Wicker)
10. Kentucky (McConnell)
11. Georgia (Chambliss)
12. Maine (Collins)
13. Louisiana (Landrieu)
14. Kansas (Roberts)
15. Texas (Cornyn)
16. Oklahoma (Inhofe)
17. Idaho (Open)
18. New Jersey (Lautenberg)
19. Nebraska (Open)
20. South Carolina (Graham)
Of course, Virginia and New Mexico are as close to sure things as you can get in politics. New Hampshire, Colorado and North Carolina are likely Democratic at this point. Alaska and Oregon are leaning Democratic. Minnesota and Mississippi-B are toss-ups. Kentucky may be the true shocker upset of the cycle. I’d love to see Mitch McConnell lose to our fourth tier candidate in this state (No offense to Bruce Lunsford. He is definitely better than having a Bob Conley and shows the importance of always fielding legitimate contenders in Senate races, but I’d much rather have Ben Chandler or Daniel Mongiardo running).
Rather than deal with Joe Lieberman, the Dems should try to flip Arlen Specter. He’s just as liberal on most domestic issues as Lieberman is, and he’s more socially liberal than Bob Casey. From a practical perspective, Specter might be willing to make the switch. At this point he’s more popular among PA Dems than he is in the GOP, and he’ll have a hell of a time getting renominated in 2010 (at age 80) against Pat Toomey or some other such person. The Democrats could basically offer him guaranteed reelection in 2010 and a committee chairmanship for the rest of his Senate tenure. I’d strongly consider it if I were him.
We all want Lieberman tossed out on his ass come January. Let him caucus in the minority with his real friends! But what happens if we gain exactly nine seats to get to sixty including CTforLieberman party of one. Lieberman, wanting to stay in majority and keep his Chairmanship says to the leadership,
“I will make you a deal, you know if you toss me I will go to the Reps and there will be 41 votes against cloture on everything. Respecting the new President and his parties gains, I will promise to join in with the 59 other members of this caucus to be the sixtieth cloture vote on everything from Court Appointments, economy, even on war funding although I will vote cloture only on that and than vote against ending funding.”
Do we keep him or call the bluff and say F-Off?
The reason I created an account on SSP was to partake in the August cattle call. It’s hard to believe that was only two months ago! Here’s my list…
Likely pickup:
1) Virginia
2) New Mexico
3) Colorado
Lean pickup:
4) New Hampshire
5) Alaska
Tossup/Narrow Lean pickup:
6) North Carolina
7) Oregon
8) Minnesota
Tossup/Narrow Lean retention:
9) Kentucky
10) Mississippi*
Likely retention:
11) Georgia
I doubt it:
12) Maine
13) Louisiana
14) Nebraska
15) Texas
16) Idaho
17) Oklahoma
At this point, I’ll be surprised if we only get 7 seats!
Safe Flip…
1.) Virginia.
2.) New Mexico
3.) Colorado
Leans Flip…
4.) New Hampshire
5.) Alaska – Could have been likely retention had Stevens got his case against him thrown out
6.) North Carolina
Toss-Up…
7.) Oregon
8.) Minnesota
Lean retention…
9.) Kentucky
10.) Mississippi
Likely retention…
11.) Georgia
12.) Maine
Could go in a wave…
13.) South Carolina
14.) Texas
15.) Oklahoma
16.) Idaho
17.) Nebraska
Louisiana would be in a bit of danger if the Republicans had enough money to fight here, but they don’t.
Overall I think the Democrats will win 7 – 8 seats, but they could win as many as 12.
It seems like everyone agrees on 1 and 2 and who’s going to be in the top 9. But I’d like to disagree with what most of you are saying.
Namely:
#3 North Carolina
(and then shift everyone else down)
Even the McCain folks are writing off Dole. And the wind is at Hagen’s back now.
On the other hand, in CO and NH things are tightening.
Just my 2 cents.
Y’all aren’t taking Ronnie Musgrove serious. This last rasmussen poll that shows Ronnie within 2 points is not taking the massive turnout we are going to generate in to account. It has got the point where we are working on educating illiterate older voters who have never participated, on how to vote and choose the right candidate. The black turnout is going to be massive. You heard that from me, on the ground in Jackson, MS.
Nothing will make this Yankee happier than to see a Mississippi pickup!
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Colorado
4. Alaska
5. New Hampshire
6. North Carolina
7. Oregon
8. Minnesota
9. Mississippi-B
10.Kentucky
11.Georgia
12.Maine
At this point the top 6 look likely. I think we’ll win another couple. If we have that kind of majority we’ll probably give eomone else the chairmanship and Joe is free to do whatever he wants. Is there anyone serious who might run in 2012(Ned Lamont doesn’t count)?
They are getting hard to rank because they are starting to bunch together. But here goes.
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Alaska
4. North Carolina
5. Colorado
6. New Hampshire
7. Oregon
8. Minnesota
9. Mississippi
10. Kentucky
1 through 7 are more likely than not to flip.
“All things just keep getting better”
1. Virginia.
2. New Mexico
3. Colorado
4. New Hampshire
5. North Carolina
6. Alaska
7. Oregon
8. Minnesota
9. Kentucky
10. Mississippi
11. Georgia
12. Louisiana
13. Maine
The big mover in my mind is Kentucky where the bailout has really hurt McConnell bad. Sen. Bunning did nothing to help his companion by running around the state calling the bailout that McConnell backed a socialist bailout. In fact the bailout has stroked the embers of economic populism in the South in the Georgia, North Carolina and Mississippi races as well. But the greatest impact appears to be Kentucky and Sen. McConnell and wouldn’t it be sweet to avenge Daschle’s 2006 loss? If McConnell is the 60th vote for a filibister proof Supreme Court Majority all one could say is “How Sweet it is”.
P.S. the early voter trends in Georgia were for a massive surge in the black turnout. It has the GOP worried and Obama may be having a larger impact on the Southern vote than the GOP acknowledges.
In the driver’s side…
1.) Virginia.
2.) New Mexico
3.) Colorado
4.) New Hampshire
5.) North Carolina
6.) Alaska
Getting close…
7.) Oregon
Toss-Up…
8.) Minnesota
9.) Georgia
Need some lucky breaks…
10.) Kentucky
11.) Mississippi
12.) Maine
A big wave…
13.) Nebraska
14.) Texas
15.) Oklahoma
16.) Idaho
17.) South Carolina
Here are the average rankings for October based on 28 entries. The numbers in parentheses are the changes since September and June. NC=No Change.
1. Virginia (NC,NC)
2. New Mexico (NC,NC)
3. Colorado (+1,+1)
4. New Hampshire (-1,-1)
5. Alaska (NC,NC)
6. North Carolina (NC,+3)
7. Oregon (+1,NC)
8. Minnesota (-1,NC)
9. Kentucky (+4,+3)
10. Mississippi (-1,-4)
11. Georgia (NC,+8)
12. Maine (-2,-1)
13. Texas (+3,+1)
14. Louisiana (-2,-4)
15. Nebraska (+2,NC)
16. Oklahoma (-2,NC)
17. Idaho (-2,NC)
Kansas dropped off the list due to lack of mentions.
Kentucky’s 4 spot jump was the biggest move in the past month.
After carefully reading all of your responses I have come to the conclusion that so many excellent pro and con points were made that this will be a very tough call if the numbers fall out at 60.
My answer is F-Off Joe but with one remaining reservation. The response that there will be plenty of R vote crossovers on domestic issues because of a tough 2010 election ahead is very true. My remaining concern is on Judicial nominations. I fear that if the R’s can get to 40 votes they will filibuster every single progressive nominee and try to force Obama into only appointing moderate to conservative Democrats to the courts. There is a need to balance out the damage to our judiciary caused by Bush placing so many Christian Fundamentalist judges District and Appeals and so many Corporatist judges in the federal District and Appeals Courts. Even the Specters, Snowes and Voinoviches of the Senate can feel safe voting lockstep with the minority on cloture because this has always been a tough sell issue to the electorate unlike say votes against S-Chip.