October Senate Cattle Call

As we enter the final stretch run of the 2008 election cycle, it’s time we took the pulse of the Senate again. You know what to do: Rank the Senate races (as far down the list as you wish to go) in order of their likelihood of flipping.

75 thoughts on “October Senate Cattle Call”

  1. 1) VA- Mark Warner

    2) NM- Tom Udall

    3) CO- Mark Udall

    4) NH- Jeanne Shaheen

    5) AK- Mark Begich

    6) NC- Kay Hagan

    7) OR- Jeff Merkley

    8) MN- Al Franken

    9) KY- Bruce Lunsford

    10) GA- Jim Martin

  2. (1) Virginia

    (2) New Mexico

    (3) Colorado

    (4) New Hampshire

    (5) Alaska

    (6) North Carolina

    (7) Oregon

    (8) Minnesota

    (9) Mississippi

    (10) Kentucky

    (11) Georgia

    (12) Texas

    (13) Louisiana

    All other seats are safe…at this time.  I think the Dems will definitely pick up (1)-(3), probably pick up (4)-(6), and has at least a 50-50 chance of picking up (7)-(9).

    I will go on a limb (not really a limb, but more like reality) that Maine will not be contested.

  3. 1.  Virginia

    2.  New Mexico

    3.  Colorado

    4.  New Hampshire

    5.  Alaska

    6.  North Carolina

    7.  Oregon

    8.  Minnesota

    9.  Mississippi-B

    10. Kentucky

    11. Georgia

    12. Maine

    13. Texas

    14. Oklahoma

    15. Nebraska

  4. Locks

    1. VA

    2. NM

    Looking Good

    3. NH

    4. CO

    5. AK

    6. OR

    7. NC

    Could Go Either Way

    8. MN

    So Close

    9. KY

    10. MS

    Yet So Far

    11. GA

    12. LA

    All others are out of contention minus a real game-changer.

  5. 1) Virginia

    2) New Mexico

    3) Colorado

    4) North Carolina

    5) Alaska

    6) New Hampshire

    7) Oregon

    8) Minnesota (Though possibly to I)

    9) Mississippi

    10) Kentucky

    11) Maine

    12) Georgia

    13) Texas

    14) Louisiana

    15) South Carolina

    16) Oklahoma

    17) Nebraska

    18) New Jersey

    19) Kansas

    20) Idaho

    All others are “inconceivable

  6. 1. VA

    2. NM

    3. NH

    4. CO

    5. AK

    6. NC

    7. OR

    8. MN

    9. MS

    10. KY

    11. GA

    12. ME

    13. LA

    13. TX

    14. NJ

    15. SC

    16. NE

    17. OK

    18. ID

    19. KS

    20. TN

  7. Likely to Solid D:

    1. VA – Open

    2. NM – Open

    Leans D to Likely D:

    3. CO – Open

    4. NH – Sununu

    5. AK – Stevens

    Slight D Edge:

    6. NC – Dole

    7. OR – Smith

    Tossup:

    8. MN – Coleman

    Slight R Edge:

    9. MS – Wicker

    10. KY – McConnell

    Leans R to Likely R:

    11. GA – Chambliss

    12. ME – Collins

    Dem Seat – Leans D to Likely D:

    13. LA – Landrieu

    Outlook – Dem gain between 7-9 seats

  8. 1. VA [Warner]

    2. NM [T. Udall]

    3. NH [Shaheen]

    4. CO [M. Udall]

    5. AK [Begich]

    6. NC [Hagan]

    7. OR [Merkley]

    9. MN [Franken– really hopin for this one]

    10. MS [Musgrove]

    11. KY [Lunsford]

    12. GA [Martin]

    13. ME [Allen]

    14. OK [Rice}

    15. TX {Noriega]

    16. NE [Kleeb]

    17. SC [Conley]

  9. 1. Virginia

    2. New Mexico

    3. Colorado

    4. New Hampshire

    5. Alaska

    6. Oregon

    7. North Carolina

    8. Minnesota

    9. Mississippi-B

    10. Kentucky

    11. Georgia

    12. Louisiana

    13. Maine

  10. 1. Virginia

    2. New Mexico

    3. Colorado

    4. New Hampshire

    5. Alaska

    6. Oregon

    7. North Carolina

    I expect to win all these.

    8.  Minnesota

    9.  Mississippi

    Too close to call.

    10. Kentucky

    11. Georgia

    GOP ahead but not by much.

    12. Maine

    13. Texas

    Repubs favored but could tighten.

    14. Idaho

    15. Nebraska

    16. South Carolina

    17. Oklahoma

    18. Kansas

    Not impossible but very unlikely.

     

  11. 1. Virginia

    2. New Mexico

    3. Colorado

    4. Alaska

    5. New Hampshire

    6. Oregon

    7. North Carolina

    8. Minnesota

    9. Mississippi-B

    10.Kentucky

    11.Georgia

    12.Louisiana

    13.Maine

    1-2 are locked; 3-5 are pretty good (disappointment if we lose any of those); 6-7 lean to DEMs; 8-9 lean to GOP; 10-13 are likely to stay incumbent Senator (considered not even listing 11-13 and just having KY).

    Outcome is a 7-8 seat DEM gain depending on 6-9 basically.

  12. 1. Virginia

    2. New Mexico

    3. New Hampshire

    4. Colorado

    5. Alaska

    6. Minnesota

    7. Oregon

    8. North Carolina

    9. Mississippi-B

    10. Georgia

    11. Kentucky

    12. Maine

    13. Louisiana

    14. Nebraska

    15. Oklahoma

    16. Texas

    17. Idaho

    18. Kansas

    19. New Jersey

    20. South Dakota

    1-2 are locks for the Dems, 3-5 are pretty comfortable pickups unless Uncle Ted pulls a whizzer and gets acquitted, 6-8 are tossups but look hopeful unless McCain pulls another rabbit out of his hat at the last minute, 9-10 are formidable but could happen if the African-American vote really comes out big, 11-12 are unlikely but could happen if we really get an Obama tsunami, 13-20 are almost certainly not going to happen.    

  13. 1. State for for lovers

    2. Roswell

    3. John Denver –

    4. The Granite State

    5. Nike Town

    6. The Palin State

    7  Tarheel State

    8. Hockey Mom State

    9. The Peach State

    10. Bluegrass

    11. Crooked Letters

  14. I used to enjoy this at that site but am glad that Swing State runs it as well.  I see zero Democratic held seats belonging in the Cattle Call 30 days out.

    The Republican seats at play I see in this order of flipability.

    1) VA

    2) NM

    3) NH

    4) CO

    5) NC

    6) OR

    7) MN

    8) AK

    9) GA

    10)KY

    11)MS B

    12)TX

    The hopefuls that are just not catching and regrettably gone now are:

    13)ME

    14)OK

    15)KS

    16)NE

    17)ID

    The never was but thank you guys for trying!

    18)TN

    19)AL

    20)MS A

    21)SC

    22)WY 1

    23)WY 2

  15. 1. VA – Warner (sure thing)

    2. NM – T. Udall (virtually sure thing)

    3. CO – M. Udall (good campaign in purple state)

    4. NH – Shaheen (NH turning blue?)

    5. NC – Hagen (great campaign against a wall hanging)

    6. OR – Merkley (smart campaign in blue state)

    7. AK – Begich (may withstand Palin effect)

    8. MN – Franken (enigma, but great ad starring wife)

    9. KY – Lundsford (just ruthless enough)

    10. GA – Martin (state may trend purple)

    11. MS – Musgrove (hard to read)

    12. TX – Noriega (movin’ on up?)

    13. SC – Conley (sleeper out of right field)

    14. ME – Allen (still possible in a wave)

    15. OK – Rice (our vibes have to be adding points)

    16. NE – Kleeb (personal charisma may trump ideology)

    17. ID – La Rocca (hard work, enthusiasm a plus)

    18. NJ – Zimmer-R (hope not, doubt it)

    19. TN – Tuke (miracle needed)

    20. KS – Slattery (even a miracle wouldn’t do it)

     

  16. Likely Change of Party:

    1) Virginia

    2) New Mexico

    Lean Change of Party:

    3) Colorado

    4) New Hampshire

    5) Alaska

    6) North Carolina

    7) Oregon

    Tossups:

    8) Minnesota

    9) Mississippi

    Lean Retention:

    10) Kentucky

    11) Georgia

    12) Maine

    13) Nebraska

    14) Louisiana

    Likely Retention:

    15) Texas

    16) Oklahoma

    17) Kansas

    18) New Jersey

    19) South Carolina

    20) Idaho

    21) Tennessee

    All other races are safe.

  17. 1) VA- Mark Warner

    2) NM- Tom Udall

    3) CO- Mark Udall

    4) NH- Jeanne Shaheen

    5) AK- Mark Begich

    6) NC- Kay Hagan

    7) OR- Jeff Merkley

    8) MN- Al Franken

    9) KY- Bruce Lunsford

    1o)Ms-B -Ronnie Musgrove

    11) GA- Jim Martin

  18. 1.Virginia

    2. New Mexico

    3. Colorado

    4. New Hampshire

    5. Alaska (though Palin coattails could f this up)

    6. North Carolina

    7. Oregon

    8. Minnesota

    9. Kentucky

    10. Mississippi-B

    11. Georgia

    12. Texas

    If you aren’t on the list than your not going to make it.  Waiting to see what the DSCC does with the $5 million for Maine.  They should start airing some ads now and see what happens.

  19. I won’t list a ranking simply because I’m working on a race, but I do wish to point out that it’s true that Texas should be moving back up some lists. We just went nearly 2 months without polling which was part of the problem.

    http://www.burntorangereport.c

    And of course, it’s a better shot than Maine which I’m surprised is still being put on people’s lists. That was gone a long time ago.  

  20. A dozen or so

    Safe Democratic

    24) Louisiana

    Likely Democratic pick-up

    1) Virginia

    2) New Mexico

    3) Colorado

    4) New Hampshire

    5) Mississippi-B

    6) Alaska

    (OK, outrun by events. With Sen Stevens currently on trial, I’d have to admit that AK is more likely to flip than MS. But not by much. And both will flip, for sure.)

    Leans Democrat pick-up

    7) Oregon

    Toss-up

    8) Minnesota

    9) North Carolina

    10) Kentucky

    (Today I’d promote NC and KY to Leans Democratic pick-up. Minnesota, well, damn. I like Al Franken, but that doesn’t mean that I think everybody likes Al Franken. His celebrity is both his greatest asset and his greatest liability. The polling continues to be erratic. I think we win in the Democratic wave, but this is one instance where the personality just might be stronger than the wave.)

    Leans Repub

    11) Texas

    12) Maine

    13) Idaho

    14) Oklahoma

    15) Kansas

    16) Nebraska

    Likely Repub

    17) Georgia

    (Whoa. I was way far off about GA. Today I’d put Jim Martin and GA at about 10) Leans Democratic pick-up. Hey, Obama is gonna carry at least three ex-Confederate states, we’re gonna elect four new Senators from Southern states, and pick up House seats in VA, NC, FL, LA, and TX, and possibly in SC and AL too, on top of the ones we got in LA and MS earlier this year. Who said the Repubs would be a Southern regional party? We’ll wipe them out in Dixie too!)

    (TX is looking much better. Rick Noriega is rising in the polls without a minute of TV ads; that says to me it’s the Democratic wave lifting his boat. He has a simple course to victory: Hispanics vote for him as one of their own. Blacks vote for him while voting for Obama as one of their own. The Obama campaign gets every Anglo Democrat to the polls. The DSCC rides in like the calvary to saturate the air with negatives against Big John Cornyn the last week or two of October.)

    (OK is a longshot, but a realistic longshot. The DSCC really likes Andrew Rice. If he continues to gain ground, they can come into the two medium-sized not-too-expensive media markets, Tulsa and Oklahoma City, and go heavily negative on climate change denier Inhofe.)

    (Looks like KS is just not gonna take off; Slattery let his opponent get on the air first to define him as a Washington lobbyist.)

    (NE has some movement, but it’s getting very late.)

    (ID still has Larry LaRocco as the luckiest politician in this cycle. He need not even remind us that Sen Larry Craig is not gay.)

    (ME Tom Allen can’t seem to land the knockout punch. Maybe Obama can do it for him. Or the DSCC with negative ads in late October. They did a job of Liddy Dole, but Sen Collins is a better, more slippery pol.)

    18) Tennessee

    (And TN is not completely dead after all. So I’ll make Bob Tuke and TN a new 18) Likely Repub.

    South Carolina

    Mississippi-A

    Wyoming

    Alabama

    Wyoming

    Trying to be conservative, but I can’t find much else to change. At least half of my “Leans Repub” races will be competitive by November, Toss-ups or nearly so.

    In the wave election, the Democrats will sweep almost all — but not all — of the competitive contests, winning 10 or 12 or even 14 seats.

    Seriously, that’s my forecast and I’m sticking to it. This will be a transformative, map-changing election, and an utter and complete repudiation of the Repub party.

    # # #  

  21. 1. Virginia (Open)

    2. New Mexico (Open)

    3. New Hampshire (Sununu)

    4. Colorado (Open)

    5. North Carolina (Dole)

    6. Alaska (Stevens)

    7. Oregon (Smith)

    8. Minnesota (Coleman)

    9. Mississippi-B (Wicker)

    10. Kentucky (McConnell)

    11. Georgia (Chambliss)

    12. Maine (Collins)

    13. Louisiana (Landrieu)

    14. Kansas (Roberts)

    15. Texas (Cornyn)

    16. Oklahoma (Inhofe)

    17. Idaho (Open)

    18. New Jersey (Lautenberg)

    19. Nebraska (Open)

    20. South Carolina (Graham)

    Of course, Virginia and New Mexico are as close to sure things as you can get in politics. New Hampshire, Colorado and North Carolina are likely Democratic at this point. Alaska and Oregon are leaning Democratic. Minnesota and Mississippi-B are toss-ups. Kentucky may be the true shocker upset of the cycle. I’d love to see Mitch McConnell lose to our fourth tier candidate in this state (No offense to Bruce Lunsford. He is definitely better than having a Bob Conley and shows the importance of always fielding legitimate contenders in Senate races, but I’d much rather have Ben Chandler or Daniel Mongiardo running).  

  22. Rather than deal with Joe Lieberman, the Dems should try to flip Arlen Specter.  He’s just as liberal on most domestic issues as Lieberman is, and he’s more socially liberal than Bob Casey.  From a practical perspective, Specter might be willing to make the switch.  At this point he’s more popular among PA Dems than he is in the GOP, and he’ll have a hell of a time getting renominated in 2010 (at age 80) against Pat Toomey or some other such person.  The Democrats could basically offer him guaranteed reelection in 2010 and a committee chairmanship for the rest of his Senate tenure.  I’d strongly consider it if I were him.

    1. We all want Lieberman tossed out on his ass come January.  Let him caucus in the minority with his real friends!  But what happens if we gain exactly nine seats to get to sixty including CTforLieberman party of one. Lieberman, wanting to stay in majority and keep his Chairmanship says to the leadership,

      “I will make you a deal, you know if you toss me I will go to the Reps and there will be 41 votes against cloture on everything.  Respecting the new President and his parties gains, I will promise to join in with the 59 other members of this caucus to be the sixtieth cloture vote on everything from Court Appointments, economy, even on war funding although I will vote cloture only on that and than vote against ending funding.”

      Do we keep him or call the bluff and say F-Off?

  23. The reason I created an account on SSP was to partake in the August cattle call.  It’s hard to believe that was only two months ago!  Here’s my list…

    Likely pickup:

    1) Virginia

    2) New Mexico

    3) Colorado

    Lean pickup:

    4) New Hampshire

    5) Alaska

    Tossup/Narrow Lean pickup:

    6) North Carolina

    7) Oregon

    8) Minnesota

    Tossup/Narrow Lean retention:

    9) Kentucky

    10) Mississippi*

    Likely retention:

    11) Georgia

    I doubt it:

    12) Maine

    13) Louisiana

    14) Nebraska

    15) Texas

    16) Idaho

    17) Oklahoma

    At this point, I’ll be surprised if we only get 7 seats!

  24. Safe Flip…

    1.) Virginia.

    2.) New Mexico

    3.) Colorado

    Leans Flip…

    4.) New Hampshire

    5.) Alaska – Could have been likely retention had Stevens got his case against him thrown out

    6.) North Carolina

    Toss-Up…

    7.) Oregon

    8.) Minnesota

    Lean retention…

    9.) Kentucky

    10.) Mississippi

    Likely retention…

    11.) Georgia

    12.) Maine

    Could go in a wave…

    13.) South Carolina

    14.) Texas

    15.) Oklahoma

    16.) Idaho

    17.) Nebraska

    Louisiana would be in a bit of danger if the Republicans had enough money to fight here, but they don’t.

    Overall I think the Democrats will win 7 – 8 seats, but they could win as many as 12.  

  25. It seems like everyone agrees on 1 and 2 and who’s going to be in the top 9.  But I’d like to disagree with what most of you are saying.  

    Namely:

    #3  North Carolina

    (and then shift everyone else down)

    Even the McCain folks are writing off Dole.  And the wind is at Hagen’s back now.

    On the other hand, in CO and NH things are tightening.

    Just my 2 cents.

  26. Y’all aren’t taking Ronnie Musgrove serious.  This last rasmussen poll that shows Ronnie within 2 points is not taking the massive turnout we are going to generate in to account.  It has got the point where we are working on educating illiterate older voters who have never participated, on how to vote and choose the right candidate.  The black turnout is going to be massive.  You heard that from me, on the ground in Jackson, MS.

  27. 1. Virginia

    2. New Mexico

    3. Colorado

    4. Alaska

    5. New Hampshire

    6. North Carolina  

    7. Oregon

    8. Minnesota

    9. Mississippi-B

    10.Kentucky

    11.Georgia

    12.Maine

    At this point the top 6 look likely.  I think we’ll win another couple.  If we have that kind of majority we’ll probably give eomone else the chairmanship and Joe is free to do whatever he wants.  Is there anyone serious who might run in 2012(Ned Lamont doesn’t count)?

  28. They are getting hard to rank because they are starting to bunch together. But here goes.

    1. Virginia

    2. New Mexico

    3. Alaska

    4. North Carolina

    5. Colorado

    6. New Hampshire

    7. Oregon

    8. Minnesota

    9. Mississippi

    10. Kentucky

    1 through 7 are more likely than not to flip.

  29. “All things just keep getting better”

    1. Virginia.

    2. New Mexico

    3. Colorado

    4. New Hampshire

    5. North Carolina

    6. Alaska

    7. Oregon

    8. Minnesota

    9. Kentucky

    10. Mississippi

    11. Georgia

    12. Louisiana

    13. Maine

    The big mover in my mind is Kentucky where the bailout has really hurt McConnell bad. Sen. Bunning did nothing to help his companion by running around the state calling the bailout that McConnell backed a socialist bailout.  In fact the bailout has stroked the embers of economic populism in the South in the Georgia, North Carolina and Mississippi races as well.  But the greatest impact appears to be Kentucky and Sen. McConnell and wouldn’t it be sweet to avenge Daschle’s 2006 loss?  If McConnell is the 60th vote for a filibister proof Supreme Court Majority all one could say is “How Sweet it is”.

    P.S. the early voter trends in Georgia were for a massive surge in the black turnout.  It has the GOP worried and Obama may be having a larger impact on the Southern vote than the GOP acknowledges.

  30. In the driver’s side…

    1.) Virginia.

    2.) New Mexico

    3.) Colorado

    4.) New Hampshire

    5.) North Carolina

    6.) Alaska

    Getting close…

    7.) Oregon

    Toss-Up…

    8.) Minnesota

    9.) Georgia

    Need some lucky breaks…

    10.) Kentucky

    11.) Mississippi

    12.) Maine

    A big wave…

    13.) Nebraska

    14.) Texas

    15.) Oklahoma

    16.) Idaho

    17.) South Carolina  

  31. Here are the average rankings for October based on 28 entries.  The numbers in parentheses are the changes since September and June.  NC=No Change.

    1. Virginia (NC,NC)

    2. New Mexico (NC,NC)

    3. Colorado (+1,+1)

    4. New Hampshire (-1,-1)

    5. Alaska (NC,NC)

    6. North Carolina (NC,+3)

    7. Oregon (+1,NC)

    8. Minnesota (-1,NC)

    9. Kentucky (+4,+3)

    10. Mississippi (-1,-4)

    11. Georgia (NC,+8)

    12. Maine (-2,-1)

    13. Texas (+3,+1)

    14. Louisiana (-2,-4)

    15. Nebraska (+2,NC)

    16. Oklahoma (-2,NC)

    17. Idaho (-2,NC)

    Kansas dropped off the list due to lack of mentions.

    Kentucky’s 4 spot jump was the biggest move in the past month.

  32. After carefully reading all of your responses I have come to the conclusion that so many excellent pro and con points were made that this will be a very tough call if the numbers fall out at 60.

    My answer is F-Off Joe but with one remaining reservation.  The response that there will be plenty of R vote crossovers on domestic issues because of a tough 2010 election ahead is very true.  My remaining concern is on Judicial nominations.  I fear that if the R’s can get to 40 votes they will filibuster every single progressive nominee and try to force Obama into only appointing moderate to conservative Democrats to the courts.  There is a need to balance out the damage to our judiciary caused by Bush placing so many Christian Fundamentalist judges District and Appeals and so many Corporatist judges in the federal District and Appeals Courts.  Even the Specters, Snowes and Voinoviches of the Senate can feel safe voting lockstep with the minority on cloture because this has always been a tough sell issue to the electorate unlike say votes against S-Chip.

Comments are closed.